Issue #15 | October 15, 2026

You buy a bag of chips. The price went up again. You open it, and half the bag is air.

That's shrinkflation. You pay more and get less.

Now picture the same thing with your homeowners insurance. The premium rises, the deductible grows, and somewhere in the fine print the company changes what it will pay to replace your roof.

The bag looks the same. There's just less inside.

Meanwhile, Texas officials reported good news: rates are coming down.

Well. Some of them.

On October 8, the state announced that insurers had filed rate cuts for about 700,000 Texas homeowners. The governor applauded and promised more relief next session (Just in time for election season.)

Lovely. Here's what the press release left out.

Back in July, State Farm, the state's largest homeowners insurer, filed to raise rates on 751,000 policies starting November 1.

That's one company raising rates on more Texans than every company cutting them, combined.

And the "4.3% average decrease"? It's a simple average of the filings. A small insurer trimming rates for a few thousand customers counts exactly as much as State Farm.

By that math, if I eat a salad and you eat a double cheeseburger, we both had a healthy lunch.

The cuts are real. But even if your premium goes down, you may be buying less protection.

Say your home has $330,000 in dwelling coverage. A 1% wind and hail deductible means you pay the first $3,300 of a storm claim. At 2%, it's $6,600. At 5%, it's $16,500.

Same house. Same storm. A very different bill.

Then there's the roof. Some insurers are switching older roofs from replacement cost to actual cash value. Instead of paying to replace a damaged roof, they pay what it was worth after depreciation.

Put those together, and a homeowner can pay premiums for years, take serious hail damage, and still cover most of the repair.

An analysis reported by the Houston Chronicle found that about 47% of Texas homeowners claims closed in 2024 and paid nothing. Some fell under the deductible. Others were denied or closed for other reasons.

Even the state's insurer of last resort, the Texas FAIR Plan, dropped its 1% wind and hail deductible this July. The minimum is now 2%.

You’re paying the insurance company to carry the risk. Increasingly, you’re the one carrying more and more of the risk!

Most people assume insurers need the state's permission before raising rates. In Texas, they generally don't.

In Texas, under a system called file-and-use, insurers can put new rates into effect while regulators review them. Regulators haven't formally disapproved a homeowners or auto rate filing since 2017.

In 2025, the Texas Senate passed a bill requiring advance approval for increases over 10%. Insurers opposed it, and the bill died in a House committee.

That isn't a conspiracy. It's the system. And it means you're the last line of defense on your own policy.

You can't control hailstorms, reinsurance markets, or the Legislature. You can control what you agree to pay for.

Before your next renewal:

Find your deductible in dollars, not percent. Then ask yourself whether you could write that check tomorrow. If not, start setting that money aside now.

Look for "actual cash value" or "roof payment schedule" on your declarations page. If your roof coverage changed, ask your agent what a new roof would cost you out of pocket.

Shop at every renewal. Some insurers are cutting rates while others raise them. One competing quote tells you which side your company is on.

Ask about impact-resistant roofing discounts if you're replacing your roof anyway. Insurers must offer one, but you have to ask and send the paperwork.

Check your insurer's rate filing on the Texas Department of Insurance website before your renewal arrives.

If you pay through escrow, confirm your renewal was actually paid. Servicers make mistakes, and you don't want to find out after a storm.

The insurance company knows exactly how much risk it has handed back to you. Now you can know it, too.

Forewarned is forearmed. Read your policy, understand your deductibles, and find out what your insurance won't cover before the next storm arrives.